Sunday, December 23

Week 390 - REITs That Qualify For "The 2 and 8 Club"

Situation: Membership in “The 2 and 8 Club” is based on the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index, which consists of the ~400 companies in the FTSE Russell 1000 Index that reliably pay an above-market dividend. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are excluded from the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index because their dividend payouts are variable, being fixed by law at 95% of gross income. But those payouts are usually higher than the yield on an S&P 500 ETF (e.g. SPY), which is ~2%. We are curious as to whether any REITs meet the 5 basic requirements for membership in “The 2 and 8 Club”, and find that there are 4 (see Table). However, REITs are typically “small cap stocks.” Only one of the four in our Table is a large enough company to be included in the FTSE Russell 1000 Index (Simon Property Group; SPG).

Mission: Populate our Standard Spreadsheet for REITs. Select only those that meet the 5 basic requirements for membership in “The 2 and 8 Club”:
   1) above-market dividend yield;
   2) 5-Yr dividend growth of at least 8.0%/yr;
   3) a 16+ year trading record that is analyzed weekly for quantitative metrics by the BMW Method;
   4) an S&P Bond Rating of BBB+ or higher;
   5) an S&P Stock Rating of B+/M or higher.
Add a column for FFO (Funds From Operations; see Column P in the Table), which is a ratio that the REIT Industry substitutes for P/E

Execution: see Table.

Bottom Line: Pricing for REITs is negatively correlated with rising interest rates but not as much as you might suspect. This is likely because the dividend yield for most REITs remains above the interest rate on a 10-Yr US Treasury Note. Pricing is more sensitive to the likelihood that the REIT will have enough FCF (Free Cash Flow) to fund dividend payouts (see Column R in the Table). Overall, it is hard to argue against the idea that high-quality REITs are a good “bond substitute.” 

Risk Rating: 4 (where 10-Yr US Treasury Note = 1, S&P 500 Index = 5, gold bullion = 10)

Full Disclosure: I dollar-average into SPG and own shares of KIM.

"The 2 and 8 Club" (CR) 2017 Invest Tune All rights reserved.

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