Sunday, December 30

Week 391 - Members of “The 2 and 8 Club” in the FTSE Russell 1000 Index


Situation:The 2 and 8 Club” is based on the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index, which represents the ~400 companies in the FTSE Russell 1000 Index that reliably have a dividend yield higher than S&P 500 Index. Accordingly, a complete membership list for “The 2 and 8 Club” requires screening all ~400 companies in the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index periodically to capture new members and remove members that no longer qualify. This week’s blog is the first complete screen.

Mission: Use our Standard Spreadsheet to analyze all members of “The 2 and 8 Club.”

Execution: see Table

Administration: The requirements for membership in “The 2 and 8 Club” are:
1) membership in the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index;
2) a 5-Yr dividend growth rate of at least 8%;
3) a 16+ year trading record that has been quantitatively analyzed by the BMW Method;
4) a BBB+ or better rating from S&P on the company’s bond issues;
5) a B+/M or better rating from S&P on the company’s common stock issues.

In addition, the company cannot become or remain a member if Book Value for the most recent quarter (mrq) is negative or Earnings per Share for the trailing 12 months (TTM) are negative. Finally, there has to be a reference index that is a barometer of current market conditions, i.e., has a dividend yield that fluctuates around 2% and a 5-Yr dividend growth rate that fluctuates around 8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is that reference index. In the event that the 5-Yr dividend growth rate for that reference index moves down 50 basis points to 7.5% for example, we would use that cut-off point for membership instead of 8%.   

Bottom Line: There are 40 current members. Only 9 are in “defensive” S&P Industries (Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care). At the other end of the risk scale, there are 12 banks (or bank-like companies) and 5 Information Technology companies; 13 of the 40 have Balance Sheet issues that are cause for concern (see Columns N-P). While the rewards of “The 2 and 8 Club” are attractive (see Columns C, K, and W), such out-performance is not going to be seen in a rising interest rate environment (see Column F in the Table). Why? Because the high dividend payouts (see Column G in the Table) become less appealing to investors when compared to the high interest payouts of Treasury bonds).

NOTE: This week’s Table will be updated at the end of each quarter.

Risk Rating: 6 (where 10-Yr US Treasury Notes = 1, S&P 500 Index = 5, and gold bullion = 10)

Full Disclosure: I dollar-average into JPM, NEE and IBM, and also own shares of TRV, CSCO, BLK, MMM, CMI and R.

Caveat Emptor: If a capitalization-weighted Index of these 40 stocks were used to create a new ETF, it would be 5-10% more risky (see Columns D, I, J, and M in the Table) than an S&P 500 Index ETF like SPY. But the dividend yield and 5-Yr dividend growth rates would be ~50% higher, which means the investor’s money is being returned quite a bit more rapidly. That will have the effect of reducing opportunity cost.

"The 2 and 8 Club" (CR) 2017 Invest Tune All rights reserved.

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